We’re On for the Second Half of the Year at the National Assembly!
As the new parliamentary year gets underway, the Impact Public Affairs team would like to share some of the issues to keep an eye on in the Salon rouge - the new location that will welcome MNAs for the next two years, following renovations to the traditional Salon bleu. With François Legault's ministerial adjustment and the start of public hearings on important bills for the province's future, it's safe to say that this autumn promises to be a busy one.
Three subjects to pay attention to
Mobilité Infra Québec: Centralizing Expertise for the Province's Major Worksites
Before the parliamentary break, the Minister of Transport and Sustainable Mobility, Geneviève Guilbault, introduced Bill 61 to create a new agency mandated to conduct opportunity analyses, and to plan and carry out complex transportation infrastructure projects. The study of this bill, which will continue throughout the fall, is eagerly awaited by all opposition parties, as well as by municipalities who wish to maintain their autonomy in land-use planning. In addition to the discussions on this bill, we can also expect updates on other issues related to public transport: the third link and the tramway in Quebec City, and the structuring project in the east end of Montreal are just a few examples.
Energy Reform: A Bill That's Causing Quite a Stir
Just before the summer break, the former Minister of the Economy, Innovation and Energy, Pierre Fitzgibbon, tabled the voluminous Bill 69. Broadly speaking, this bill aims to give the government the means to achieve its objectives in terms of energy transition and clean energy production. As part of the consultations scheduled for the fall, many associations and companies will be keeping a close eye on the discussions surrounding rate increases for SMEs, residential rate modulation and private self-generation of electricity. The implementation of an Integrated Energy Resources Management Plan, to decarbonize Quebec by 2050, is also likely to generate essential discussions over the coming years.
Immigration
Unsurprisingly, immigration is another issue that will be at the heart of the political debate in the National Capital. At the end of August, the CAQ announced a temporary freeze on the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) in the Montreal region. The freeze officially came into effect on September 3, and applies to jobs worth less than $57,000 a year. The government did, however, make exceptions for certain sectors, including health, agriculture, construction and education. During the fall, the Minister of Higher Education, Pascale Déry, is also expected to table a bill to limit the number of international students in the province. Will the PQ's dissatisfaction with these measures lead the government to go even further on this complex issue?
Status of political parties
Parti Québécois
Despite limited resources, with only four MNAs and limited speaking time at the National Assembly, the Parti Québécois maintains its position at the top of the polls. With the hasty departure of Pierre Fitzgibbon, the Terrebonne by-election is an important opportunity for Paul St-Pierre Plamondon and his team. In addition to adding a player to their political formation and retaking an old stronghold, this election will test the PQ vote. Currently, a race between the PQ and the CAQ looms on the horizon in this riding.
During the fall session, the PQ team is likely to continue to nip at the heels of the CAQ government on the latest measures announced on immigration and the Northvolt project.
Coalition Avenir Québec
Over the summer, the CAQ managed to halt its slide in the polls by adopting a “disciplined” approach. However, the departure of Pierre Fitzgibbon and now MNA Youri Chassin puts the political formation in a delicate position to begin parliamentary work. Ranked second in voting intentions, François Legault's team will have to prevent dissatisfaction within its ranks from being the topic of the day for too long, and reaffirm the measures that enabled the CAQ to become a majority government.
Over the next few weeks, the CAQ has several bills and measures to defend with the opposition parties. With adjustments to the Cabinet, the work of Christine Fréchette, the new “super-minister” of the Economy, Innovation and Energy, and Jean-François Roberge will be essential to follow in the fall. Indeed, immigration and Hydro-Québec's investment plan will be two key items on the CAQ's list of priorities. Health care, including negotiations with the Fédération interprofessionnelle de la santé du Québec, is also high on the government's agenda.
Quebec Liberal Party
The needle in the polls has been fairly steady for the Liberal Party since the last election, with around 16% of voting intentions. The party is still very strong on the island of Montreal, but the situation is more difficult outside the metropolis. Nevertheless, the Official Opposition has an experienced team of MNAs who will be keen to challenge the government's decisions on public finance management and propose solutions to improve the province's productivity.
Still without a leader, we can expect the leadership race to take center stage in the coming year. At present, several candidates have already confirmed their interest in taking part in the race, which will officially begin on January 13, 2025. They include former president and general manager of the Fédération des chambres de commerce du Québec, Charles Milliard, former Montreal mayor Denis Coderre, Marguerite-Bourgeoys MNA Frédéric Beauchemin, and tax lawyer Marc Bélanger. On top of that, federal Liberal MP Pablo Rodriguez has recently announced he will be leaving his ministerial duties to run for the QLP leadership. For the QLP, this race will undoubtedly provide an opportunity to reconnect with the regions.
Québec Solidaire
After a difficult spring parliamentary session for Québec Solidaire, marked by numerous departures and friction over the party's political program, the summer break was probably beneficial for Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois' team.
As for QS's policy proposals, the party has already raised its next hobbyhorse in recent weeks: food insecurity in the province's public schools. Is collaboration with the government, like the housing file, possible again? We can also expect the political party to continue its fight against the rising cost of living and the housing crisis.
In addition to these issues, the unveiling of QS's new spokesperson in November is an important event to follow. Montreal MP Ruba Ghazal will once again be trying her luck.
Quebec Conservative Party
Although the QCP was unable to win a seat in the National Assembly in the last election, Éric Duhaime's party has not had its last word. Indeed, the party seems to be holding on to its core voter base, even now that the pandemic is over. This summer, the leader stepped up his interventions against the CAQ regarding the budget deficit and the ban on the sale of gasoline-powered vehicles in 2035.
It will be interesting to see if the PCQ can keep up this momentum between now and the next election, channeling their resources into specific measures. The provincial election is not yet upon us, but Éric Duhaime's team is one to watch in certain ridings.
If you need help and recommendations to build your government relations strategies in Quebec, don't hesitate to contact our team in Montreal!
Alexis Morin
PUBLIC AFFAIRS ASSOCIATE